It’s not a sin to be wrong

A long time ago a friend of a friend, was confused. He made a logical error. It happens.

He was trying to convince us that for every instance where there is two options, there is a 50/50 chance of either one happening. “In particular, soccer games are a toss up. Both teams have an equal chance at winning.” was his thoughts.

*Sigh*. I’m not sighing because I’m frustrated. I’m sighing because I have so much to say.
There are two crimes people commit.

  1. Not thinking
  2. Not admitting they were wrong in the face of overwhelming evidence

This friend did neither. Those are real sins. Though shalt not – not think. Thou shalt admit when they are wrong.

Too often I see one person scoff at another because they didn’t know something. “Ugh, you didn’t know that sweatshops are wrong?”
“Uhh no, but not for a lack of occurring to me.” “Well it’s obvious, duh”. Grrr. Smug jerks be damned. The curious will inherit the earth.

For this friend of ours, we asked a couple of questions to highlight where that knowledge might be fallacious. Then they came to the same conclusion that we did. The number of possibilities does not guarantee an even distribution of probability. On a spinner, or die, or picking marbles out of a bag, those probabilities are evenly distributed. They had the general idea, but they were over zealous with the application. This is the natural state of humans: somewhat rational.

Do not fault them, for they know not what they are talking about. Don’t scoff. Enlighten.